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References

Grouped by what they support. DOIs are given where the publisher assigns one.

Forcing and the IPCC assessment

  • Forster, P. et al. (2021). The Earth's energy budget, climate feedbacks, and climate sensitivity. In Climate Change 2021: The Physical Science Basis, Working Group I contribution to the IPCC Sixth Assessment Report, Chapter 7. Cambridge University Press. doi:10.1017/9781009157896.009
  • IPCC (2021). Summary for Policymakers, Table SPM.1 (warming in 2081–2100 by scenario). In Climate Change 2021: The Physical Science Basis. doi:10.1017/9781009157896.001
  • Meinshausen, M. et al. (2020). The shared socio-economic pathway (SSP) greenhouse gas concentrations and their extensions to 2500. Geoscientific Model Development 13, 3571–3605. doi:10.5194/gmd-13-3571-2020
  • Etminan, M., Myhre, G., Highwood, E. J. and Shine, K. P. (2016). Radiative forcing of carbon dioxide, methane, and nitrous oxide: a significant revision of the methane radiative forcing. Geophysical Research Letters 43, 12614–12623. doi:10.1002/2016GL071930
  • Myhre, G., Highwood, E. J., Shine, K. P. and Stordal, F. (1998). New estimates of radiative forcing due to well mixed greenhouse gases. Geophysical Research Letters 25, 2715–2718. doi:10.1029/98GL01908
  • Skeie, R. B. et al. (2020). Historical total ozone radiative forcing derived from CMIP6 simulations. npj Climate and Atmospheric Science 3, 32. doi:10.1038/s41612-020-00131-0
  • Smith, C. J. et al. AR6 forcing time series, concentrations and metrics (repository chrisroadmap/ar6, archived on Zenodo, doi:10.5281/zenodo.5211357).

Spectroscopy and radiative transfer

  • Gordon, I. E. et al. (2022). The HITRAN2020 molecular spectroscopic database. Journal of Quantitative Spectroscopy and Radiative Transfer 277, 107949. doi:10.1016/j.jqsrt.2021.107949
  • Kochanov, R. V. et al. (2016). HITRAN Application Programming Interface (HAPI): a comprehensive approach to working with spectroscopic data. Journal of Quantitative Spectroscopy and Radiative Transfer 177, 15–30. doi:10.1016/j.jqsrt.2016.03.005
  • Mlawer, E. J. et al. (2012). Development and recent evaluation of the MT_CKD model of continuum absorption. Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A 370, 2520–2556. doi:10.1098/rsta.2011.0295
  • Loeb, N. G. et al. (2018). Clouds and the Earth's Radiant Energy System (CERES) Energy Balanced and Filled (EBAF) top-of-atmosphere (TOA) edition-4.0 data product. Journal of Climate 31, 895–918. doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-17-0208.1
  • Manabe, S. and Wetherald, R. T. (1967). Thermal equilibrium of the atmosphere with a given distribution of relative humidity. Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences 24, 241–259.
  • COESA (1976). U.S. Standard Atmosphere, 1976. NOAA, NASA and U.S. Air Force, NOAA-S/T 76-1562.
  • Hodnebrog, Ø. et al. (2020). Updated global warming potentials and radiative efficiencies of halocarbons and other weak atmospheric absorbers. Reviews of Geophysics 58, e2019RG000691. doi:10.1029/2019RG000691

Stratospheric adjustment

  • Forster et al. (2021), Section 7.3.1 (above) for the definition of stratosphere-adjusted forcing and the adjustment factors used here.
  • Fixed dynamical heating as a method: Fels, S. B., Mahlman, J. D., Schwarzkopf, M. D. and Sinclair, R. W. (1980). Stratospheric sensitivity to perturbations in ozone and carbon dioxide: radiative and dynamical response. Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences 37, 2265–2297; and Hansen, J. et al. (1997). Radiative forcing and climate response. Journal of Geophysical Research 102, 6831–6864.

Warming, scenarios and emission metrics

  • Leach, N. J. et al. (2021). FaIRv2.0.0: a generalized impulse response model for climate uncertainty and future scenario exploration. Geoscientific Model Development 14, 3007–3036. doi:10.5194/gmd-14-3007-2021
  • Smith, C. J. et al. (2024). fair-calibrate v1.4.1: calibration, constraining, and validation of the FaIR simple climate model for reliable future climate projections. Geoscientific Model Development 17, 8569–8592. doi:10.5194/gmd-17-8569-2024. Calibration data: doi:10.5281/zenodo.10566813.
  • Smith, C. J. et al. (2018). FAIR v1.3: a simple emissions-based impulse response and carbon cycle model. Geoscientific Model Development 11, 2273–2297. doi:10.5194/gmd-11-2273-2018
  • Geoffroy, O. et al. (2013). Transient climate response in a two-layer energy-balance model. Part I. Journal of Climate 26, 1841–1857. doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00195.1
  • Nicholls, Z. et al. (2020). Reduced Complexity Model Intercomparison Project Phase 1: protocol, results and initial observations. Geoscientific Model Development 13, 5175–5190. doi:10.5194/gmd-13-5175-2020. Emissions used: RCMIP v5.1.0, doi:10.5281/zenodo.4589756.
  • Riahi, K. et al. (2017). The Shared Socioeconomic Pathways and their energy, land use, and greenhouse gas emissions implications: an overview. Global Environmental Change 42, 153–168. doi:10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2016.05.009
  • Joos, F. et al. (2013). Carbon dioxide and climate impulse response functions for the computation of greenhouse gas metrics: a multi-model analysis. Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics 13, 2793–2825. doi:10.5194/acp-13-2793-2013
  • Gasser, T. et al. (2017). Accounting for the climate–carbon feedback in emission metrics. Earth System Dynamics 8, 235–253. doi:10.5194/esd-8-235-2017
  • Collins, W. J. et al. (2013). Global and regional temperature-change potentials for near-term climate forcers. Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics 13, 2471–2485. doi:10.5194/acp-13-2471-2013

Observations

  • Morice, C. P. et al. (2021). An updated assessment of near-surface temperature change from 1850: the HadCRUT5 data set. Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres 126, e2019JD032361. doi:10.1029/2019JD032361. Data: Met Office Hadley Centre and Climatic Research Unit, University of East Anglia, https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadcrut5/ (Open Government Licence v3.0).
  • Lan, X., Tans, P. and Thoning, K. W. Trends in globally-averaged CO₂ determined from NOAA Global Monitoring Laboratory measurements. NOAA Global Monitoring Laboratory, https://gml.noaa.gov/ccgg/trends/. Mauna Loa annual means: https://gml.noaa.gov/ccgg/trends/data.html.

Policy texts

  • Montreal Protocol on Substances that Deplete the Ozone Layer (1987) and the Kigali Amendment (2016). United Nations Environment Programme, https://ozone.unep.org.
  • Kyoto Protocol to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (1997) and the Paris Agreement (2015). https://unfccc.int.