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scientific(relation): exclude unpromoted inferred transitions from numerical estimation #673
Description
Activity
- added 4 commits that reference this issue
on Sep 22, 2026 Ordinary-forward implementation on #639:
- RED
400f64b2c1cfff106bd7d318355132ff1a98f42f: public integration contract builds a valid inferred-onlyTransitionsTograph and requiresReferenceTopicInput::new(...)to fail withInvalidModelInput. On predecessorb85c5896...,collect_transition_pairs(...)accepts that inferred edge, so the contract is causally red. Its hosted workflows were superseded/cancelled before execution; no hosted RED is claimed. - minimal production repair
55274ed1914ccc9fcd49edec5aae7b77eff497cd:topic_measurement::referencenow admits transition pairs only when the edge is both a transition kind andRelationEvidenceStatus::Observed; rustdoc now matches ADR 0012's existing "explicit observed predecessor/successor relations only" estimand. No relation graph persistence, estimator arithmetic, tolerance, or hyperparameter changed. - CHANGELOG
29d97647bb1a358d3379f9e3f7401b9ac6291e10. - mixed-graph hardening
205df30282c6f7b52809e819a1421873d1e81f8d: deterministic reference fits for an observed graph and the same graph plus a distinct inferred cross-cluster transition must be exactly identical, while inferred-only still fails admission.
The issue remains open until exact-head hosted gates provide current GREEN evidence. This repair does not solve #658/#671 source/event-time provenance; it only prevents unpromoted inferred relation evidence from becoming numerical authority.
- RED
Follow-on owner-authority gap: #675. #673 now correctly prevents
RelationEvidenceStatus::Inferredfrom becoming numerical authority, butRelationEdge::new(...)still lets any public caller supplyRelationEvidenceStatus::Observeddirectly. #675 therefore keeps #673's estimator filter but requires final Observed activation to be backed by an owner-issued Evidence/Temporal Semantics receipt after #527/#658 settle. Do not weaken #673 or add local booleans/digests intopic_measurement.
Problem
At
b85c5896beb24d1b8bb415689c1e6cf4a277a2dc,ReferenceTopicInput::new(...)collects everyRelationEdgewhose kind is a transition and whose endpoints are in the admitted corpus.collect_transition_pairs(...)does not inspectRelationEvidenceStatus.That crosses an existing owner boundary.
relation_graph::RelationEvidenceStatusexplicitly distinguishesObservedfromInferredso estimators and audits do not treat LLM/model/heuristic proposals as raw documentary evidence;Inferredis documented as not yet promoted. Today an inferredTransitionsToedge therefore enterstransition_pairsand changes the relational penalty, eta gradient, GGN precision/diagonal variance, and emitted sequence-edge/lineage counts exactly like observed evidence.This is scientific activation, not a presentation-only defect. It lets unpromoted model/heuristic output alter numerical estimation and uncertainty.
Required repair
topic_measurementnumerical admission must use only directly observed transition edges.relation_graphfor provenance/review but must not enter the reference estimator'stransition_pairsuntil some explicit owner promotion changes their evidence status.ReferenceTopicInput::new(...)withInvalidModelInputbecause there is no numerically admissible transition evidence.relation_graph; do not duplicate source truth or introduce an LLM/model-specific exception intopic_measurement.Non-goals
No change to relation-edge persistence/provenance, no automatic promotion of inferred edges, no tolerance/estimator hyperparameter change, no scanner/gate change, and no claim that observed status alone solves #658/#671 source/event-time provenance.
This issue is independent of #671: #671 authenticates source/event-time coordinates; this issue prevents already-typed but unpromoted inferred relation evidence from becoming numerical authority.