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Fakhruddin12/README.md

Fakhruddin Hakim Hussain — Quantitative research and data science

I am a data scientist with around one year of professional experience and an MSc in Statistics with Data Science, with Merit, from the University of Edinburgh. My projects use statistics, numerical modelling and machine learning to investigate forecasting, financial risk and trading questions.

Previously, I worked on delivery staffing, customer-order forecasting and rider incentives at Swiggy, a food-delivery business, and promotion-planning models at PUMA. My earlier degree is an Integrated MSc in Chemistry from IIT Kharagpur. I am based in Bengaluru, India.

Email · All projects · How I evaluate research

Start with a question

Project What I investigated Main finding
BTC/ETH spot–futures carry When does a futures premium pay for trading costs and holding capital? 19.35% simulated net return versus 16.81% for entering every eligible contract, including cash interest.
GridPulse: electricity demand Can past demand predict tomorrow's hourly electricity needs? Average test error fell 43.3% versus copying the same hour from the previous week.
ClearCredit: repayment-history risk Do ordered repayment histories improve default-risk predictions? GRU ranked 50.6% of defaults in the highest-risk 20% of accounts; its advantage over boosted trees was small.
Used-tractor prices — MSc dissertation How much can cleaned auction records tell us about sale prices? Median percentage error fell from 40.2% to 32.0% against quadratic regression.
River pollution — MSc dissertation How do direct-discharge and runoff contributions change over time? Hierarchical time-varying models helped zinc and orthophosphate predictions, but not every pollutant.
Option-price calibration Does an adaptive penalty recover volatility more reliably from sparse quotes? Some pricing gains, but unstable known-volatility recovery and weaker performance on some unseen expiries.

Each repository begins with the problem and result, then links to model details, evaluation and code. Results are labelled as simulations, historical report findings or executed prediction studies as appropriate. The full index also covers market-state volatility forecasting, ride-hailing simulation, statistical coursework and earlier machine-learning notebooks.

How I work

I start with a useful baseline and make the prediction target explicit. Then I check whether the extra model complexity helps, examine where it fails and keep the result traceable to evidence. In the credit-risk study, for example, adding deep learning led to a useful failure analysis rather than a claim that neural networks clearly beat trees.

Programming: Python · R · SQL · C++
Methods: time series · Bayesian inference · machine learning · numerical optimisation · stochastic simulation
Tools: NumPy · pandas · SciPy · scikit-learn · PyTorch · LightGBM · CatBoost · brms/Stan · DuckDB · Git · Databricks · Snowflake

I am interested in quantitative research and data science roles where careful analysis and collaboration turn models into useful decisions.

Pinned Loading

  1. operator-regularized-dupire operator-regularized-dupire Public

    Inverse local-volatility calibration: PDE pricing, SSVI reference correction and controlled regularizer benchmarks.

    Jupyter Notebook

  2. hmm-regime-volatility-forecasting hmm-regime-volatility-forecasting Public

    From-scratch HMM and random forests for five-day forward volatility, with chronological and non-overlapping evaluation.

    Jupyter Notebook

  3. gridpulse gridpulse Public

    GB day-ahead electricity-demand forecasting: Ridge vs TCN, expanding-window validation and reproducible NESO pipeline.

    Python

  4. clearcredit clearcredit Public

    Credit-default modelling: calibrated LightGBM benchmark, threshold analysis, DuckDB features and scoring API demo.

    Python

  5. auction-price-prediction auction-price-prediction Public

    Auction-price modelling: deduplication, mixed currencies, CatBoost vs regression and test-error analysis.

    Jupyter Notebook

  6. bayesian-river-water-quality bayesian-river-water-quality Public

    Censoring-aware river concentration modelling with LAMs, GAMs and Bayesian extensions; dissertation and research code.

    R