Record the probable starter, not the words "Probable Starting Pitcher"

autonomy/sports/espn.py

@@ -121,7 +121,12 @@ def _probable_era(competitor: dict[str, Any]) -> tuple[float | None, str | None]
     if not probs:
         return None, None
     p = probs[0]
-    name = p.get("displayName") or (p.get("athlete") or {}).get("displayName")
+    # The probables entry carries BOTH a slot label and the athlete. Its own
+    # ``displayName`` is the label -- literally "Probable Starting Pitcher" --
+    # so reading it first meant the athlete fallback never ran and every game
+    # recorded the same constant string as its starter. Ask the athlete first.
+    athlete = p.get("athlete") or {}
+    name = athlete.get("displayName") or athlete.get("fullName") or p.get("displayName")
     for stat in p.get("statistics") or []:
         if str(stat.get("name", "")).lower() in ("era", "earnedrunaverage"):
             try:

tests/test_espn_lake_adapter.py

@@ -214,3 +214,41 @@ def test_probable_pitcher_fields_are_omitted_not_null_when_absent(tmp_path):
     (row,) = espn_games_to_rows([game], source="espn", received_at="2026-08-12T18:00:00Z")
     assert "home_probable_pitcher" not in row["extra"]
     assert "away_probable_pitcher" not in row["extra"]
+
+
+def test_probable_starter_is_the_athlete_not_the_slot_label():
+    """ESPN's probables entry carries a label AND an athlete; take the athlete.
+
+    The entry's own ``displayName`` is the literal string "Probable Starting
+    Pitcher". Reading it first meant the athlete fallback never ran and every
+    game in the lake recorded the same constant as its starter -- ERAs varied
+    correctly, so the rows looked populated while pitcher identity, the whole
+    point of the field, was uniform garbage. The assertion is on precedence,
+    because the label is always present.
+    """
+
+    from autonomy.sports.espn import _probable_era
+
+    era, name = _probable_era(
+        {
+            "probables": [
+                {
+                    "name": "probableStartingPitcher",
+                    "displayName": "Probable Starting Pitcher",
+                    "athlete": {"displayName": "Jameson Taillon", "fullName": "Jameson Taillon"},
+                    "statistics": [{"name": "ERA", "displayValue": "2.87"}],
+                }
+            ]
+        }
+    )
+    assert name == "Jameson Taillon"
+    assert era == 2.87
+
+
+def test_probable_starter_falls_back_to_the_label_only_when_no_athlete():
+    from autonomy.sports.espn import _probable_era
+
+    _, name = _probable_era(
+        {"probables": [{"displayName": "Probable Starting Pitcher", "statistics": []}]}
+    )
+    assert name == "Probable Starting Pitcher"