Skip to content

Site currency fixes, UI defects, and the corrected GDP claim #87

New issue

Have a question about this project? Sign up for a free GitHub account to open an issue and contact its maintainers and the community.

Sign up for GitHub

By clicking “Sign up for GitHub”, you agree to our terms of service and privacy statement. We’ll occasionally send you account related emails.

Already on GitHub? Sign in to your account

Merged
vahid-ahmadi merged 3 commits into from
Jul 24, 2026
Merged

Site currency fixes, UI defects, and the corrected GDP claim #87

Show file tree
Hide file tree
Changes from all commits
Commits
Show all changes
3 commits
Select commit Hold shift + click to select a range
e00bcfe
Fix contradicted site claims and two undefined design tokens
vahid-ahmadi Jul 24, 2026
2f92c2f
Correct the GDP claim: indistinguishable from a random walk, not beaten
vahid-ahmadi Jul 24, 2026
7371b74
Remove the ambient dot field
vahid-ahmadi Jul 24, 2026
File filter

Filter by extension

Filter by extension
Conversations
Failed to load comments.
Loading
Jump to
Jump to file
Failed to load files.
Loading
Diff view
Diff view
2 changes: 0 additions & 2 deletions connect/index.html
View file
Open in desktop
Original file line number Diff line number Diff line change
Expand Up @@ -238,7 +238,6 @@
<body class="doc">
<a class="skip-link" href="#top">Skip to main content</a>
<div class="grain" aria-hidden="true"></div>
<canvas id="field" aria-hidden="true"></canvas>

<header class="nav">
<a class="brand" href="/">
Expand Down Expand Up @@ -434,6 +433,5 @@ <h2>Use a model package directly.</h2>
});
})();
</script>
<script src="/field.js" defer></script>
</body>
</html>
3 changes: 1 addition & 2 deletions contact/index.html
View file
Open in desktop
Original file line number Diff line number Diff line change
Expand Up @@ -15,7 +15,6 @@
<body class="doc">
<a class="skip-link" href="#top">Skip to main content</a>
<div class="grain" aria-hidden="true"></div>
<canvas id="field" aria-hidden="true"></canvas>
<header class="nav">
<a class="brand" href="/"><img class="brand-logo" src="/assets/policyengine-mark.svg" alt="" width="20" height="20" />PolicyEngine Macro</a>
<nav class="nav-links" aria-label="Primary">
Expand Down Expand Up @@ -60,6 +59,6 @@ <h3>Bring your model to the platform.</h3>
<a href="https://x.com/PolicyEngineUS" aria-label="PolicyEngine on X" title="X"><svg class="footer-icon-fill" viewBox="0 0 24 24" aria-hidden="true"><path d="M18.24 2.25h3.31l-7.23 8.26 8.5 11.24h-6.66l-5.21-6.82-5.97 6.82H1.67l7.73-8.84L1.25 2.25h6.83l4.71 6.23 5.45-6.23Zm-1.16 17.52h1.83L7.08 4.13H5.12l11.96 15.64Z"/></svg></a>
</nav>
</footer>
<script src="/reveal.js" defer></script><script src="/field.js" defer></script>
<script src="/reveal.js" defer></script>
</body>
</html>
2 changes: 0 additions & 2 deletions docs/index.html
View file
Open in desktop
Original file line number Diff line number Diff line change
Expand Up @@ -39,7 +39,6 @@
<body class="doc has-section-tabs">
<a class="skip-link" href="#top">Skip to main content</a>
<div class="grain" aria-hidden="true"></div>
<canvas id="field" aria-hidden="true"></canvas>

<header class="nav">
<a class="brand" href="/">
Expand Down Expand Up @@ -147,7 +146,6 @@ <h3 id="mobile-compare-title">Compare two models</h3>
</footer>

<script src="/reveal.js" defer></script>
<script src="/field.js" defer></script>
<script>
(function () {
var root = document.querySelector('[data-mobile-compare]');
Expand Down
120 changes: 0 additions & 120 deletions field.js
View file
Open in desktop

This file was deleted.

11 changes: 5 additions & 6 deletions frb-us/index.html
View file
Open in desktop
Original file line number Diff line number Diff line change
Expand Up @@ -28,7 +28,6 @@
<body class="doc has-section-tabs">
<a class="skip-link" href="#top">Skip to main content</a>
<div class="grain" aria-hidden="true"></div>
<canvas id="field" aria-hidden="true"></canvas>

<header class="nav">
<a class="brand" href="/">
Expand Down Expand Up @@ -295,8 +294,9 @@ <h2>Machine precision on the baseline; the Fed's own noise floor on shocks.</h2>
<p>
This is a <strong>replication with a published anchor</strong>, and it
is the sharpest-tested member of the suite — because for once the
ground truth is exact rather than statistical. Two invariants carry
the weight, and both are enforced in continuous integration.
ground truth is exact rather than statistical. Three invariants carry
the weight, and all are enforced in continuous integration &mdash; including
four like-for-like scenarios gated against vendor-generated references.
</p>
</div>
<div class="metrics">
Expand Down Expand Up @@ -390,8 +390,8 @@ <h2>What is absent, and what is merely local.</h2>
<td>The model-consistent-expectations (MCE) equation variants are not implemented — <code>Frbus(path, mce=...)</code> raises <code>NotImplementedError</code>. Anything that turns on agents anticipating announced future policy, forward guidance most obviously, is out of scope.</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<th scope="row"><strong>No <code>mcontrol</code>, no stochastic simulation</strong></th>
<td>The reference implementation's targeting routine and its stochastic-simulation machinery are both out of scope, so confidence bands around a projection are not available here.</td>
<th scope="row"><strong>No <code>mcontrol</code></strong></th>
<td>The reference implementation's trajectory-targeting routine is out of scope. Stochastic simulation <em>is</em> implemented &mdash; <code>stochsim_bands()</code> produces seeded residual-bootstrap percentile bands &mdash; but the hosted <code>frbus_shock</code> path still returns a single deterministic projection, so bands are not available through the MCP surface.</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<th scope="row"><strong>Hosted, but only as raw shocks</strong></th>
Expand Down Expand Up @@ -438,6 +438,5 @@ <h2>What is absent, and what is merely local.</h2>
});
});
</script>
<script src="/field.js" defer></script>
</body>
</html>
2 changes: 0 additions & 2 deletions index.html
View file
Open in desktop
Original file line number Diff line number Diff line change
Expand Up @@ -24,7 +24,6 @@
<body class="doc">
<a class="skip-link" href="#top">Skip to main content</a>
<div class="grain" aria-hidden="true"></div>
<canvas id="field" aria-hidden="true"></canvas>

<header class="nav">
<a class="brand" href="/">
Expand Down Expand Up @@ -228,6 +227,5 @@ <h2>Add the models to Claude or ChatGPT—or use them in your own code.</h2>
</footer>

<script src="/reveal.js" defer></script>
<script src="/field.js" defer></script>
</body>
</html>
23 changes: 15 additions & 8 deletions integration/src/policyengine_macro/capabilities.py
View file
Open in desktop
Original file line number Diff line number Diff line change
Expand Up @@ -184,11 +184,16 @@ def _quality(level: str, evidence: str, next_gate: str) -> dict:
),
"predictive_validation": _quality(
"moderate",
"Across 49 leakage-safe rolling origins, CPI beats no change at one- "
"and eight-quarter horizons, while GDP is about 6% worse; the separate "
"seven-quarter frozen-edge evaluation gives 0.32pp RMSE.",
"Compare with a declared BVAR benchmark and publish proper predictive "
"scores across the rolling origins.",
"Across 49 leakage-safe rolling origins, only 3 of 64 (variable, "
"horizon) cells differ significantly from a random walk by a "
"Diebold-Mariano test. UK CPI is significantly better at short "
"horizons (ratio 0.63, p<0.005 at h=1); UK GDP's higher ratio "
"(1.06-1.09) is NOT significant at any horizon (p=0.38-0.67), so "
"it is indistinguishable from the benchmark rather than beaten by "
"it. The exchange rate is significantly worse at h=8 (1.41, "
"p=0.03). The frozen-edge evaluation gives 0.32pp RMSE.",
"Add a declared BVAR benchmark, score the predictive densities "
"(not just point forecasts), and report interval coverage.",
),
"identification_robustness": _quality(
"moderate",
Expand Down Expand Up @@ -219,9 +224,11 @@ def _quality(level: str, evidence: str, next_gate: str) -> dict:
"frb-us": {
"implementation_fidelity": _quality(
"strong",
"The baseline and a reference shock match LONGBASE and pyfrbus at the "
"reference solver's numerical noise floor.",
"Extend like-for-like gates across official demos, closures and recodes.",
"The baseline and four like-for-like scenarios (monetary, fiscal "
"egfe, tax trp, non-inertial Taylor) match LONGBASE and pyfrbus at "
"the reference solver's numerical noise floor.",
"Extend like-for-like gates across further official demos, closures "
"and recodes; add the MCE expectations path.",
),
"predictive_validation": _quality(
"not_assessed",
Expand Down
4 changes: 2 additions & 2 deletions integration/src/policyengine_macro/core.py
View file
Open in desktop
Original file line number Diff line number Diff line change
Expand Up @@ -1766,7 +1766,7 @@ def _og_solve(solve_fn, **kwargs):
failures are translated into clear messages: (a) no HuggingFace access to
the dataset — set HUGGING_FACE_TOKEN; (b) policyengine-uk >= 2.89 renamed
the dataset keys from enhanced_frs_2023_24_<year> to populace_uk_*, which
makes oguk 0.3.0 (pinning policyengine-uk==2.88.0) fail with a KeyError.
makes oguk 0.3.2 (pinning policyengine-uk==2.88.0) fail with a KeyError.
"""
try:
return solve_fn(**kwargs)
Expand All @@ -1777,7 +1777,7 @@ def _og_solve(solve_fn, **kwargs):
"(a) no access to the enhanced-FRS dataset on HuggingFace — set "
"HUGGING_FACE_TOKEN to a token with access "
"(policyengine.tax_benefit_models.uk.ensure_datasets downloads "
"it); (b) incompatible policyengine-uk version — oguk 0.3.0 "
"it); (b) incompatible policyengine-uk version — oguk 0.3.2 "
"requires policyengine-uk==2.88.0 (>= 2.89 renamed the datasets)"
": pip install 'policyengine-uk==2.88.0'."
) from e
Expand Down
3 changes: 1 addition & 2 deletions models/index.html
View file
Open in desktop
Original file line number Diff line number Diff line change
Expand Up @@ -15,7 +15,6 @@
<body class="doc has-section-tabs models-page">
<a class="skip-link" href="#top">Skip to main content</a>
<div class="grain" aria-hidden="true"></div>
<canvas id="field" aria-hidden="true"></canvas>
<header class="nav">
<a class="brand" href="/"><img class="brand-logo" src="/assets/policyengine-mark.svg" alt="" width="20" height="20" />PolicyEngine Macro</a>
<nav class="nav-links" aria-label="Primary">
Expand Down Expand Up @@ -69,6 +68,6 @@ <h1 class="reveal page-title" style="--d:1">Choose the model that fits the quest
<a href="https://x.com/PolicyEngineUS" aria-label="PolicyEngine on X" title="X"><svg class="footer-icon-fill" viewBox="0 0 24 24" aria-hidden="true"><path d="M18.24 2.25h3.31l-7.23 8.26 8.5 11.24h-6.66l-5.21-6.82-5.97 6.82H1.67l7.73-8.84L1.25 2.25h6.83l4.71 6.23 5.45-6.23Zm-1.16 17.52h1.83L7.08 4.13H5.12l11.96 15.64Z"/></svg></a>
</nav>
</footer>
<script src="/reveal.js" defer></script><script src="/field.js" defer></script>
<script src="/reveal.js" defer></script>
</body>
</html>
2 changes: 0 additions & 2 deletions obr/index.html
View file
Open in desktop
Original file line number Diff line number Diff line change
Expand Up @@ -28,7 +28,6 @@
<body class="doc has-section-tabs">
<a class="skip-link" href="#top">Skip to main content</a>
<div class="grain" aria-hidden="true"></div>
<canvas id="field" aria-hidden="true"></canvas>

<header class="nav">
<a class="brand" href="/">
Expand Down Expand Up @@ -426,6 +425,5 @@ <h2>What is broken, and what is merely absent.</h2>
});
});
</script>
<script src="/field.js" defer></script>
</body>
</html>
2 changes: 0 additions & 2 deletions olg/index.html
View file
Open in desktop
Original file line number Diff line number Diff line change
Expand Up @@ -28,7 +28,6 @@
<body class="doc has-section-tabs">
<a class="skip-link" href="#top">Skip to main content</a>
<div class="grain" aria-hidden="true"></div>
<canvas id="field" aria-hidden="true"></canvas>

<header class="nav">
<a class="brand" href="/">
Expand Down Expand Up @@ -414,6 +413,5 @@ <h2>Experimental-grade wiring, stated plainly.</h2>
});
});
</script>
<script src="/field.js" defer></script>
</body>
</html>
Loading