Certify Build M US Populace as the certified default#475
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Fixes #474. BUILD_M_RELEASE_ID populace-us-2024-buildm-sparse-rmloss100-98bf731- 20260717T075101Z replaces populace-us-2024-buildj-sparse-rmloss100- 75d5add-20260710T094201Z; policyengine-us stays 1.764.6 (built_with_model_package), so pyproject and household snapshots are untouched - the #470 common case, per the Build M runbook. Build M sparse vs Build J: final loss 0.02666 vs 0.03084, within-10% 90.21% vs 89.00%, 5,667 vs 5,510 compiled targets, all 14 release gates passed. The UK TRO sidecar's two sha fields update because it binds the same (changed) bundle manifest; not a degraded regeneration. Verified: bundle.py check green; local-area overlay preserved; manifest+certify suites 70 passed; models+US regions 57 passed against the published tag; overlay selection 7 passed; format+lint clean. Merging this PR is the default-flip decision and stays with the maintainer. Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
MaxGhenis
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July 17, 2026 11:03
This was referenced Jul 17, 2026
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Fixes #474
Certifies Build M as the US Populace certified default, replacing Build J, per
docs/engineering/runbooks/build-m-us-populace-certification.md(the #470 pattern).BUILD_M_RELEASE_ID=populace-us-2024-buildm-sparse-rmloss100-98bf731-20260717T075101Z(immutable tag onpolicyengine/populace-us;latest.jsonuntouched — merging this PR is the flip decision)MODEL_VERSION=policyengine-us==1.764.6(unchanged;compatibility_basis: built_with_model_package—pyproject.tomland household snapshots untouched, the Certify US Populace default: Build J 57k (rmloss100) #470 common case)populace-us-2024-buildj-sparse-rmloss100-75d5add-20260710T094201ZRelease quality (Build M sparse vs Build J)
Gate battery notes: SSI swap delta 464,107 within the populace#431 cap (654,017), reform-coverage smoke fully green — keogh probe at +$118.1M under the populace#446 selection-mass protection (populace#445 adjudication), farm probes green under the populace#437 "either" sign and the populace#442 parity exclusion (populace#441 adjudication).
Changes (exactly the runbook's file set)
src/policyengine/data/bundle/manifest.json— rewritten byscripts/certify_data_release.pyfrom the Build M release manifest (sha25ee62fb…)src/policyengine/data/bundle/us.trace.tro.jsonld+uk.trace.tro.jsonld— regenerated with--include-tros; the UK sidecar's two sha fields update because it binds the same (changed) bundle manifest — not a degraded regeneration (no limited markers; sidecar-binding tests pass)tests/test_release_manifests.py,tests/test_models.py,tests/test_us_regions.py— the three pinned release-id constantschangelog.d/certify-us-populace-us-2024-buildm-sparse-rmloss100-98bf731-20260717T075101Z.changed.md— auto-written by the certify scriptVerification
scripts/bundle.py checkexits 0; local-area overlay (populace_us_2024_acs_local) preserved and assertedmake format/make lintcleantests/test_release_manifests.py+tests/test_certify_data_release.py: 70 passedtests/test_models.py+tests/test_us_regions.py: green against the published tag (results in thread)Draft on purpose: do not merge without the maintainer's explicit flip decision.
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