Biotech — idiosyncrasy as the edge; the anti-Basel.
Bio is a member of the Blaque Baux family. The core repo is the engine and blueprint — a governed, systematic platform (Julia) with a venue-agnostic execution controller and a Layer-3 live-money safety gate. Bio points that engine in its own direction and inherits the governance wholesale.
Not investment advice. Educational/research software. Nothing here is validated. See LICENSE.
git clone --recursive https://github.com/blaquebaux/bio.git
julia --project=engine -e 'using Pkg; Pkg.instantiate()' # one-time engine setupThe base study found biotech under the FDA is the low-correlation opposite of banks: product regulation with idiosyncratic, binary outcomes keeps names uncorrelated despite heavy oversight. So Bio is a dispersion / event play, not a factor play.
- Dispersion — high idiosyncratic vol; test event and dispersion strategies, not directional beta.
- Binary catalysts — FDA/trial events (needs a calendar); PEAD-style drift around them (cf. Boom #4).
- XBI vs IBB — equal-weight (small-cap, more idiosyncratic) vs cap-weight structure.
Full detail in research/README.md. The scorecard:
| # | Question | Verdict |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Is biotech really the anti-Basel? | ✅ confirmed — corr 0.32 vs banks 0.81; 6.3 eff-bets vs 1.4; 3× dispersion |
| 2 | Is holding the sector worth it? | |
| 3 | Does high dispersion pay (stock-picking)? | ❌ null — momentum +0.01, reversal negative |
| 4 | Post-event drift? | 🟡 weak buy-the-crash (down-gaps bounce +5–6%), small sample |
The synthesis: Bio confirms its structure spectacularly — it is the clean anti-Basel (idiosyncratic, uncorrelated, 3× the dispersion of banks) — but that structure is a warning, not an edge. The dispersion is driven by binary trial/FDA outcomes, so no systematic price strategy captures it; a real biotech edge would need clinical/fundamental data. No price-based keeper clears the bar (correctly). Bio's value is diagnostic — it validates the regulation→correlation law and is the natural diversifier to Basel — plus a weak buy-the-crash candidate for later.
Research: first pass complete (research/). No keeper clears the bar for a systematic
price strategy; no live driver. Nothing validated to the spine's bar.
Blaque Baux is a quantitative research initiative and a subsidiary of Carter Warrens. BlaqueBaux.com is the home for the work; the code lives here on GitHub — open to study, test, and build bespoke strategies on top of.
Anyone can point an AI at a market. The edge is understanding what the data actually says — and turning it into something you can act on. We test relentlessly and put most of it on the record as rejected, with the reason; what survives is built, governed, and validated before it is ever called real. That combination — honest research, reproducible evidence, and execution you can trust — is why Carter Warrens leads on strategy and implementation, not merely uses the tools everyone now has.
This repo is one sleeve of the Blaque Baux family — a single governed engine steered in many directions. The core repo is the base/blueprint and holds the full family roster.
engine/ the Blaque Baux platform (git submodule -> blaquebaux/base)
research/ four Path-A sketches (anti-Basel structure, ETFs, stock-picking null, event drift) + scorecard
live/ governed live drivers (once a sleeve graduates to paper A/B)
MIT. (c) 2026 Carter Warrens.