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Europe/Middle East/Africa — US beta wearing a flag (11 ETFs → 1.8 bets), FX drag, no rotation edge. [Null]

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Blaque Baux EMEA

Europe, the Middle East, and Africa.

EMEA is a member of the Blaque Baux family. The core repo is the engine and blueprint — a governed, systematic platform (Julia) with a venue-agnostic execution controller and a Layer-3 live-money safety gate. EMEA points that engine in its own direction and inherits the governance wholesale.

Not investment advice. Educational/research software. Nothing here is validated. See LICENSE.

git clone --recursive https://github.com/blaquebaux/emea.git
julia --project=engine -e 'using Pkg; Pkg.instantiate()'   # one-time engine setup

The thesis

Regional exposure via US-listed ETFs and ADRs (VGK, EZU, EWG, EWU, EIS, EZA and peers) — a macro / regional-rotation sleeve. Caveat: traded through US-listed wrappers, so it inherits US-hours pricing and embedded FX.

Research — first pass done

Full detail in research/README.md. The scorecard:

# Question Verdict
1 Distinct exposure or US beta? ❌ US beta wearing a flag — 11 ETFs → 1.8 bets, corr-SPY 0.82; +0.61/+10%/−40% vs SPY +0.88/+15%/−34%
1 What does the unhedged FX cost? ⚠️ real drag — Europe hedged HEDJ beat unhedged EZU by −13%; basket corr to dollar −0.38
2 Does country / region rotation add alpha? ❌ no — long-RS +0.61 = EW-hold; long-short −0.23; cross-region rotate +0.60 < SPY +0.88

The synthesis: EMEA is the starkest "US beta wearing a flag" in the family — 11 country ETFs from Germany to Turkey collapse to 1.8 effective bets (corr-SPY 0.82, beta 0.90) and underperform SPY on every axis (+0.61/+10%/−40% vs +0.88/+15%/−34%), while adding political tail risk. It is the most dollar-sensitive region (corr to UUP −0.38), carrying an uncompensated FX drag (hedged Europe beats unhedged), and rotation adds nothing (long-short country momentum is negative, −0.23 — Europe's countries move together). A null as a standalone sleeve; at best a currency-hedged input to a global relative-strength book — where APAC, not EMEA, is the better candidate.

Status

Research: first pass complete — a null (US beta + FX drag, no rotation edge) (research/). No live driver. Geography within equities is just more beta; the honest conclusion points back to the spine.

About Blaque Baux

Blaque Baux is a quantitative research initiative and a subsidiary of Carter Warrens. BlaqueBaux.com is the home for the work; the code lives here on GitHub — open to study, test, and build bespoke strategies on top of.

Anyone can point an AI at a market. The edge is understanding what the data actually says — and turning it into something you can act on. We test relentlessly and put most of it on the record as rejected, with the reason; what survives is built, governed, and validated before it is ever called real. That combination — honest research, reproducible evidence, and execution you can trust — is why Carter Warrens leads on strategy and implementation, not merely uses the tools everyone now has.

The Blaque Baux family

This repo is one sleeve of the Blaque Baux family — a single governed engine steered in many directions. The core repo is the base/blueprint and holds the full family roster.

Layout

engine/     the Blaque Baux platform (git submodule -> blaquebaux/base)
research/   two Path-A sketches (regional beta + FX drag, country/region rotation) + scorecard
live/       governed live drivers (once a sleeve graduates to paper A/B)

License

MIT. (c) 2026 Carter Warrens.

About

Europe/Middle East/Africa — US beta wearing a flag (11 ETFs → 1.8 bets), FX drag, no rotation edge. [Null]

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