financial-crises

32 bounded causal mechanisms for historical crisis research, elicited from a model's reading of hundreds of cases and filtered by recurrence. Built to ask a question whose answer cannot be described in advance. Versioned, evidence-gated, machine-readable.

Applied econometrics framework analyzing FX volatility spillovers during the 2007–2008 GFC using VAR models and Diebold-Yilmaz spillover indices.

A cross-axis study of US market crashes, political power, and economic stress, 1865–2026 — four falsifiable findings tested against the historical record